Who’s Going to Win the Classic? Uh… by Alan Clemons 2-19-2010

Who’s going to win the Classic? Uh …BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - Bits and bites from the 40th Bassmaster Classic, which begins Friday on Lay Lake …

Fifteen Classic prediction columns under my belt and I’ve never had a winner, although I fudge a bit by not predicting a specific person.

Instead, I typically have picked “Five to watch” and dissected the possibilities. From a field of 50 or so anglers, this year with one woman, it’s a fairly good probability to hit at least one or two in the mix on the final day.

I’ve done that a time or two in the past, but if prognostication provided my income then I’d be eating ramen and gubbermint cheese.

So, on with the picks!

Kevin VanDam has won two Classics and has fared well in three previous championships here on Lay Lake. He’s from Michigan and is accustomed to cold conditions, so he has a plus in his column for that aspect. As well, he’s arguably one of the most adept at reading the conditions and changing on the fly, along with flinging a Strike King RedEye Shad lipless crankbait.

Matt Herren of Alabama is keenly familiar with the Coosa River impoundments and is considered a favorite for his 20-plus years of experience. He’s confident about a couple of things and is dialed in on the conditions, although they’re severely cold. Herren told me yesterday the water temps below Logan Martin Dam upriver are about 39-40 degrees, and maybe 45 or so elsewhere. That means largemouth are hunkered down, but he’s patient enough to work on them.

Kota Kiriyama, also of Alabama, was noticed fishing in deep water and intently watching his sonar unit during Wednesday’s practice. He’s a master at deep tactics and finesse fishing, so combine that with spotted bass on humps and he could be a darkhorse. If he comes in today with a solid catch, watch out.

It’s not because I’m an Alabama resident that another in-state angler gets consideration, but Aaron Martens is possibly more dialed-in on spotted bass than anyone in the field. He’s spent many days on the Coosa at different times of the year and is a finesse-tactic freak. Martens has been in contention before so he knows what it takes to get to the top. Now it’s just a matter of sealing the deal.

Gary Klein of Texas has fished in 28 Classics and tough conditions don’t bother him a bit. He’s focused and has a good handle on challenges. If he needs to do something different he’s not afraid to give it a try. As well, once he sets a game plan he’ll stick with it unless something compels him to change.

MUDDY WATER has been a mantra this week along with cold temperatures in the lake, so I asked Elite Series pro Greg Vinson and Bassmaster Southern Open angler Jim Hardy about it last night in the hotel lobby.Both said “muddy” probably isn’t appropriate compared to real mud rolling through the river. Heavy, dark stained water might be a better description.

“Muddy to me is when you drop a bait in the water and can’t see it,” Hardy said. “You can see one about 8 or 9 inches deep here now.”

Vinson agreed, noting the cold temperatures are more of a problem.

“But when it’s this cold and the water’s as heavily stained as it is,” he said, “that’s not a combination you want. But it’s like this on the whole river.”

FOR UPDATES TODAY from the lake, head over to www.bassmaster.com and www.espnoutdoors.com  for their running blogs. Correspondents on the lake following the anglers will be providing updates and video … if their fingers don’t freeze.

- Alan Clemons